Analysis of CDC data shows excess cancer deaths in counties that host the 16 oldest U.S. reactors
In commercial nuclear power reactors, after capital costs of construction are paid, which for the Monticello reactor in Minnesota was in the early 1990s, selling nuclear electricity is extremely profitable. Xcel Energy sells electricity for about $0.10/kWh. At this rate, every day that Monticello operates, it produces over $1.5 million that primarily pays Xcel Energy managers and shareholders.
Nuclear fission occurs in commercial nuclear reactors because uranium-235 atoms explode in chain reactions that produce atomic debris and extreme amounts of heat. Every element on the Periodic Table and all its radioactive isotopes are part of this debris, including gases such as radioactive helium, xenon, iodine, and krypton, and fine particulates like strontium-90. These materials are vented to the air or get absorbed by primary cooling water that circulates through reactor cores, and they must be removed in order for reactors to continue functioning.
The radioactive debris gets stripped out of primary cooling water, collected in holding tanks, and is held for some period. Due to the volume of these stripped materials, it is not profitable to contain them until they are no longer dangerous. So, after storing them for a designated period, they get released to the atmosphere under specified weather conditions. These are “routine radioactive releases.” Once these radioactive materials get released, they disperse into our biosphere. They are available for absorption, ingestion, and inhalation by living things, including humans.
Radiation monitoring at reactor sites is not designed, or intended, to detect these radioactive releases or to identify where they migrate or where they might accumulate. Radiation causes cancer. According to the 2005 National Academy of Sciences BEIR VII Report (Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation), every exposure to radiation has the potential to cause cancer. There is no safe dose. While infants, children and women are more susceptible than adult males, every molecule of radiation routinely released by nuclear facilities has potential to initiate cancer in a person.
Joseph Mangano, an epidemiologist with master’s degrees in Public Health and Business Administration, is sole or co-author of 41 peer-reviewed medical journal articles, including articles published by The Lancet and The British Medical Journal.
The Center for Disease Control (CDC) public health data analyzed by Mangano identifies cancer mortality over three time periods in counties that host 16 of the nation’s oldest nuclear power reactors. Mangano’s analysis compares CDC reported cancer mortality in host counties with state-wide cancer mortality averages. The bottom-line results of this analysis are presented on the map of “Excess Cancer Deaths” below. The first time period of Mangano’s analysis, 1968-1978, establishes the baseline for comparison and accounts for an initial cancer latency period, as the first of the 16 oldest nuclear reactors came on-line in 1969.
Mangano’s CDC data analysis finds significant excess cancer deaths for host counties for 15 of the 16 oldest nuclear facilities. Further, the analysis finds that excess cancer deaths are greater, often significantly greater, in the 1999-2020 time-period than between 1979 and 1998. This is not surprising, considering that more people were exposed for longer periods of time during the 1999-2020 time frame.
What is the value of a human life? The results of Mangano’s analysis of CDC county-by-county public health data are clear: commercial nuclear operations are killing residents at an accelerating and alarming rate. His analysis found that the Monticello reactor accounted for 328 excess deaths from 1999 to 2020.
Every two months in Wright and Sherburne counties, cancer kills three more people as a result of radiation released into the environment by Monticello nuclear operations. What would be the public response if every three weeks, news broadcasters identified a victim and announced that the Wright and Sherburne county “serial killer” had struck again? How long, as a society, would we find such killing to be acceptable? This death toll in exchange for expensive electricity and corporate profiteering is intolerable, so nuclear reactors must be phased out.
Projected excess cancer deaths, 2031-2050, in Minnesota’s Wright and Sherburne counties
The Monticello nuclear power reactor started operating in 1971, and its recently-extended license expires in 2051, meaning Monticello could operate for up to 80 years (the oldest U.S. reactors started 55 years ago). The NRC has approved six applications for reactors to extend licenses up to 80 years. It is currently reviewing 16 others, and expects at least 19 more.
Reactors were designed to last 40 years, based on deterioration of mechanical parts. Keeping reactors well past the 40-year mark raises safety and health issues. The more than 100 cancer-causing gases and metallic particles routinely released from Monticello into the environment, alongside those from accidental radioactive leaks, can enter human bodies by way of air, food, and water, potentially leading to higher cancer rates.
In 1968-1978, the age-adjusted death rate for Wright and Sherburne counties was 10.5% below the U.S. rate (wonder.cdc.gov). Since then, the two-county rate has steadily moved closer to equaling the U.S. rate. In the most recent 12-year period for which final data are available (2009-2020), the local rate was just 2.2% below the U.S. rate. Then, for the first time, the local rate exceeded the U.S. rate in 2015, 2017, 2020, 2022, and 2023.
The population of Sherburne and Wright counties increased between 1970 and 2020, from 115,527 to 180,270. Projected future numbers are 269,000 in 2030 and 343,000 in 2050. The estimated number of Sherburne and Wright county residents who will die of cancer in the two decades 2031-2050 is 10,010.
The proposal to extend the license for the Monticello reactor for 20 years starting in 2031 was approved by federal regulators. Numerous concerns over local safety and health have been raised. While regulators are not obligated by law to monitor trends in local disease and death rates near reactors, the routine release of radioactive isotopes into the environment raises the issue of excess cancers in this 20-year period.
Two models, each using a different assumption about future differences between local and national cancer death rates, estimate that between 831 and 1,662 excess local cancer deaths would occur in 2031-2050, or between 8.3% and 16.6% of all 10,010 estimated cancer deaths.
Many factors can contribute to cancer mortality, including exposure to environmental toxins such as radioactivity emitted from nuclear reactors like Monticello. The health risks of continued operation of an aging and corroding reactor up to 80 years is a new issue, as Monticello is one of the oldest in the U.S.
Any decision to renew Monticello’s license for an additional 20 years should have included a thorough review of health hazards by officials, followed by public discussion. The historical shift from Sherburne and Wright Counties from a low-cancer area to one nearly equal to the national rate ⸺ and the potential for this to continue or worsen in the future, in an area with a rapidly-rising population ⸺ must be considered as one criterion in this decision.
⸺ Map and analysis by George Crocker of the North American Water Office, and Joseph Mangano, the Director of the Radiation and Public Health Project. This article is taken from a longer brochure currently available from the Coalition for a Nuclear-Free Mississippi River. To learn more, visit the website and sign the petition to shut down the Monticello reactor at nuclearfreemississippi.wordpress.com.
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